sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

MIN 1 / CHC 10
MINMinnesota Twins49%
CHCChicago Cubs51%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MINAway starterZebby MatthewsConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline51%Model 20260713_auto
CHCHome starterShota ImanagaConfirmed
MIN49%ML +142
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
CHC51%ML -168

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.1 pts

Market has CHC at 60.2% vs model's 51%, a 9-point gap flagged as large disagreement. Model predicts 9.12 total vs market 7.5—that 1.6-run miss is structural. Wrigley PF 0.95 and pitcher ERAs both mid-4s support market's lower number. Defer to Pinnacle on side, lean under on inflated total.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Zebby MatthewsMIN starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -113 betrivers / U -105 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Shota ImanagaCHC starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +118 betonlineag / U -129 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+142 / -168MIN / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+129)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total