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DET 8 / CHC 6
DETDetroit Tigers59%
CHCChicago Cubs41%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterJack FlahertyConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline59%Model 20260720_auto
CHCHome starterJameson TaillonConfirmed
DET59%ML -105
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
CHC41%ML -114

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.1 pts

Model favors DET by 8 points over market's coin-flip line, triggering disagreement flag. CHC's superior offense (5.3 RPG vs 4.5, .694 OPS vs .582) and home field argue against model's away preference. Model's 9.0 total is 2 runs under market's 11.0; with Taillon's 5.19 ERA and Flaherty's mediocre ratios, lean market total down but not model's extreme 9.0.

Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.1
Market total11.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jack FlahertyDET starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 betrivers / U -119 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Jameson TaillonCHC starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -148 betrivers / U +136 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 3.563%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-105 / -114DET / CHC moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.5O +100 / U -118
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total