MLB / mlb / live
MIN 5 / CHC 2MINMinnesota Twins52%
CHCChicago Cubs48%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterBailey OberConfirmed
Model pickMIN moneyline52%Model 20260713_auto
CHCHome starterColin ReaConfirmed
MIN52%ML +128
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
CHC48%ML -150
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.6 pts
Model favors MIN at 52% but market implies CHC 56%. CHC has better offense (5.9 RPG vs 5.0) and home field. Both pitchers are mediocre (ERA ~4.5). Wrigley slight pitcher park but 10.5 total feels low given offense disparity. Lean CHC, lean over.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.6
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Bailey OberMIN starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -129 betrivers / U +110 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.524%over
O 6.513%over
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Colin ReaCHC starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 bovada / U +104 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%over
O 5.521%over
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+128 / -150MIN / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+128)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total