MLB / mlb / live
STL 4 / CHC 6STLSt. Louis Cardinals47%
CHCChicago Cubs53%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterMatthew LiberatoreConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
CHCHome starterJavier AssadConfirmed
STL47%ML +122
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
CHC53%ML -144
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +118 draftkings / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%under
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Javier AssadCHC starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +115 bovada / U -127 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%under
O 3.548%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+122 / -144STL / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total