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SDP 7 / CHC 9
SDPSan Diego Padres56%
CHCChicago Cubs44%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterJP SearsConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
CHCHome starterMatthew BoydConfirmed
SDP56%ML +130
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability42%Selected moneyline pick
CHC44%ML -154

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap14.2 pts

Model has SDP at 56% but market strongly favors CHC at 58%. The 3.5-run gap between model's 7.52 total and market's 11.0 is massive—model sees pitcher's duel, market sees slug-fest. Boyd's 5.02 ERA in limited IP and SDP's .547 OPS suggest runs will be scarce. Lean CHC, strong under.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.6
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
JP SearsSDP starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -154 betonlineag / U +125 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Matthew BoydCHC starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +126 fanduel / U -145 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%under
O 3.577%under
O 4.561%under
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+130 / -154SDP / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -113 / U -111
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total