MLB / mlb / live
COL 4 / CHC 5COLColorado Rockies46%
CHCChicago Cubs54%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterMichael LorenzenConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterShota ImanagaConfirmed
COL46%ML +189
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability67%Selected moneyline pick
CHC54%ML -226
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Michael LorenzenCOL starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -155 betmgm / U +140 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Shota ImanagaCHC starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +132 fanduel / U -157 betrivers4 books at this line
Model over 6.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%under
O 4.565%under
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+189 / -226COL / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total