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MLB / mlb / live

COL 6 / CHC 8
COLColorado Rockies38%
CHCChicago Cubs62%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterSean SullivanConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline62%Model 20260616_auto
CHCHome starterJavier AssadConfirmed
COL38%ML +172
Base model probability62%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability65%Selected moneyline pick
CHC62%ML -208

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.9
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Sean SullivanCOL starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.2Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%over
O 2.561%under
O 3.540%under
O 4.522%under
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Javier AssadCHC starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%under
O 2.575%under
O 3.556%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+172 / -208COL / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-108)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total