MLB / mlb / live
COL 6 / CHC 8COLColorado Rockies38%
CHCChicago Cubs62%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterSean SullivanConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline62%Model 20260616_auto
CHCHome starterJavier AssadConfirmed
COL38%ML +172
Base model probability62%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability65%Selected moneyline pick
CHC62%ML -208
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.9
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Sean SullivanCOL starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.2Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%over
O 2.561%under
O 3.540%under
O 4.522%under
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Javier AssadCHC starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%under
O 2.575%under
O 3.556%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+172 / -208COL / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-108)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total