MLB / mlb / live
SFG 2 / CHC 3SFGSan Francisco Giants41%
CHCChicago Cubs59%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterLanden Roupp
Model pickCHC moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterBen Brown
SFG41%ML +128
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
CHC59%ML -153
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.8 pts
Away pitcher Roupp has zero IP/ERA/K9/WHIP listed despite 10 starts—this is a data quality red flag the model can't see. Model total of 8.85 runs is 1.35 over market 7.5, suggesting structural miss. SFG's 7.1 RPG offensive rate paired with missing pitcher data makes over reasonable, but I can't pick a side confidently without knowing what Roupp actually is.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+128 / -153SFG / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total