MLB / mlb / live
SFG 18 / CHC 3SFGSan Francisco Giants42%
CHCChicago Cubs58%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterRobbie Ray
Model pickCHC moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterEdward Cabrera
SFG42%ML +152
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CHC58%ML -180
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.5 pts
Model total of 8.97 vs market 11.0 is a 2-run gap—huge structural miss. Cabrera has no recorded IP/ERA/WHIP despite 10 starts (data issue). SFG's 0.388 OPS is impossibly low, likely corrupted. Cannot trust underlying stats. Market total seems inflated; lean under but pass on side.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+152 / -180SFG / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total