MLB / mlb / live
HOU 8 / CHC 5HOUHouston Astros40%
CHCChicago Cubs60%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterPeter Lambert
Model pickCHC moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterShota Imanaga
HOU40%ML +143
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
CHC60%ML -170
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.8 pts
Imanaga's 7.20 ERA in only 5.0 IP (10 starts) is incoherent—either extreme injury/load management or data issue. Lambert has null stats despite 10 starts. Model predicts 8.97 total vs market 7.0 (1.97 run gap). Without reliable pitcher data I cannot form a view on side or total.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+143 / -170HOU / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+132)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -108 / U -112
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total