MLB / mlb / live
HOU 8 / CHC 5HOUHouston Astros40%
CHCChicago Cubs60%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterPeter Lambert
Model pickCHC moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterShota Imanaga
HOU40%ML +143
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability60%Selected moneyline pick
CHC60%ML -170
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap0.3 pts
Imanaga's 7.20 ERA in only 5.0 IP (10 starts) is incoherent—either extreme injury/load management or data issue. Lambert has null stats despite 10 starts. Model predicts 8.97 total vs market 7.0 (1.97 run gap). Without reliable pitcher data I cannot form a view on side or total.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+143 / -170HOU / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+132)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -108 / U -112
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total