MLB / mlb / live
MIL 5 / CHC 2MILMilwaukee Brewers42%
CHCChicago Cubs58%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterJacob Misiorowski
Model pickCHC moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterBen Brown
MIL42%ML -116
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
CHC58%ML -102
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap9.1 pts
Model has CHC 57.5% vs market 49.1% — an 8.4pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. Misiorowski's 19.8 K/9 in 50 IP is elite strikeout stuff; MIL's .972 OPS dwarfs CHC's .694. Brown's 5.40 ERA in 33 IP suggests vulnerability. Model underweights MIL's offensive comparison; lean MIL side. Total: market 7.5, model 8.95 — fade model's high total in pitcher-friendly Wrigley (PF 0.95).
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-116 / -102MIL / CHC moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -106 / U -115
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total