MLB / mlb / live
HOU 4 / CHC 2HOUHouston Astros42%
CHCChicago Cubs58%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterSpencer Arrighetti
Model pickCHC moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterJameson Taillon
HOU42%ML +123
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
CHC58%ML -147
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap1.1 pts
Model has CHC 58% vs market 57%, essentially convergent. Model total of 8.84 runs is 1.84 above market 7.0—a structural red flag. Pitcher stats are null for both sides despite 10 starts each, making total prediction unreliable. With incomplete pitcher data and extreme model-market total gap, side lean only.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.8
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+123 / -147HOU / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -101 / U -120
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total