MLB / mlb / live
MIL 9 / CHC 3MILMilwaukee Brewers42%
CHCChicago Cubs58%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterBrandon Sproat
Model pickCHC moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterShota Imanaga
MIL42%ML +138
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CHC58%ML -165
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.9 pts
Pitcher stats are catastrophically broken: Imanaga shows 7.2 ERA in 5.0 IP (10 starts impossible), Sproat 21.0 ERA in 3.0 IP. Data quality marked 'full' but numbers are incoherent. Cannot evaluate moneyline without trustworthy starter info. Model total 9.07 vs market 10.5 suggests under, but I lack confidence in the inputs driving that gap.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+138 / -165MIL / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+112)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total