MLB / mlb / live
CIN 2 / CHC 3CINCincinnati Reds52%
CHCChicago Cubs48%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterAndrew Abbott
Model pickCIN moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterJameson Taillon
CIN52%ML +139
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability40%Selected moneyline pick
CHC48%ML -164
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap11.9 pts
Model has CIN at 52% but market prices CHC at 60.5% (Pinnacle -162). That's an 8-point gap flagged as market_disagreement_large. CHC is 23-12 with better offense (5.1 RPG, .694 OPS vs CIN 4.8/.629). Abbott's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is a tiny sample artifact. Model's 9.12 total vs market 8.0 suggests over, supported by CHC offense at Wrigley.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+139 / -164CIN / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+132)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -118 / U -104
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total