MLB / mlb / live
CIN 2 / CHC 3CINCincinnati Reds52%
CHCChicago Cubs48%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterAndrew Abbott
Model pickCIN moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterJameson Taillon
CIN52%ML +139
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
CHC48%ML -164
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.7 pts
Model has CIN at 52% but market prices CHC at 60.5% (Pinnacle -162). That's an 8-point gap flagged as market_disagreement_large. CHC is 23-12 with better offense (5.1 RPG, .694 OPS vs CIN 4.8/.629). Abbott's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is a tiny sample artifact. Model's 9.12 total vs market 8.0 suggests over, supported by CHC offense at Wrigley.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+139 / -164CIN / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+132)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -118 / U -104
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total