MLB / mlb / live
ARI 0 / CHC 2ARIArizona Diamondbacks46%
CHCChicago Cubs54%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterRyne Nelson
Model pickCHC moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterShota Imanaga
ARI46%ML +140
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability60%Selected moneyline pick
CHC54%ML -169
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap6.6 pts
Market implies CHC 60.3%, model has 53.6% — market is more bullish on Cubs. Both starters have 7+ ERAs in tiny samples (5.0 IP, 4.2 IP), making pitcher quality a coin flip. Model's 9.04 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.54-run gap; lean under toward market given pitcher data is essentially noise.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+140 / -169ARI / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+133)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -114
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total