MLB / mlb / live
ARI 5 / CHC 6ARIArizona Diamondbacks45%
CHCChicago Cubs55%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterZac Gallen
Model pickCHC moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterColin Rea
ARI45%ML +120
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
CHC55%ML -140
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.5 pts
Model total of 9.0 runs is 2 runs above market's 7.0 in a pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.95). Gallen's 9.0 ERA in 4 IP is a tiny sample; the market knows he's better. CHC's 5.7 RPG vs ARI's 5.2 RPG supports slight home comparison, aligning with market's -133. Lean CHC but under on total.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+120 / -140ARI / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total