MLB / mlb / live
ARI 4 / CHC 8ARIArizona Diamondbacks53%
CHCChicago Cubs47%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterMerrill Kelly
Model pickARI moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterMatthew Boyd
ARI53%ML +132
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability41%Selected moneyline pick
CHC47%ML -158
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap11.8 pts
Model picks ARI at 53% but market has CHC at 59% (Pinnacle -150). Kelly's data is fallback quality; Boyd's 14.73 ERA in 3.2 IP is tiny sample noise. Model's 9.01 total vs market 12.0 is a 3-run gap—likely the model sees pitcher quality the market doesn't trust yet. Structural flags argue caution; lean CHC on market wisdom, under on total given model-market chasm.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total12.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+132 / -158ARI / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context12.0O -107 / U -112
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total