MLB / mlb / live
NYM 1 / CHC 2NYMNew York Mets42%
CHCChicago Cubs58%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterTobias Myers
Model pickCHC moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CHCHome starterJavier Assad
NYM42%ML +110
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
CHC58%ML -131
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap3.7 pts
Assad's pitcher data is completely missing (fallback mode), making this a structural blind spot. NYM's 1.8 RPG over 21 games is historically extreme and likely reflects schedule or small-sample noise the model can't parse. Market at CHC -125 vs model 58% is minor disagreement, but without Assad's actual performance data I cannot justify overriding the coin-flip market line.
pitcher data fallback
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -131NYM / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -112
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total