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CHC 6 / BOS 2
CHCChicago Cubs55%
BOSBoston Red Sox45%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHCAway starterShota ImanagaConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline55%Model 20260921_auto
BOSHome starterTanner HouckConfirmed
CHC55%ML -120
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
BOS45%ML +100

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-timeN/A

Boston's starter is TBD and the model substituted a 4.33 ERA / 1.37 WHIP fallback profile, so the pitching side is unresolved. Imanaga's 3.74 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 173.1 IP is the only firm input, and the model's 54.8% CHC comparison is modest. With no market odds to anchor against and near-identical records (88-73 vs 87-74), this stays a lean and the 8.60 total is unusable.

pitcher data fallbackmarket data missing

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.7
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Shota ImanagaCHC starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 fanatics / U -170 fanatics1 book at this line
Model over 4.565%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%under
O 4.565%under
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Tanner HouckBOS starter / home
Projected K3.5Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%under
O 2.567%under
O 3.546%under
O 4.527%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-120 / +100CHC / BOS moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-167)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -114
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total