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scheduled
CHCChicago Cubs55%
BOSBoston Red Sox45%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHCAway starterDavid PetersonProbable
Model pickCHC moneyline55%Model 20260921_auto
BOSHome starterBrayan BelloProbable
CHC55%ML -117
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
BOS45%ML -102

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.2 pts

Market is a coin flip (-102/-108) and the model's 54.8% CHC comparison is small; Chicago's 88-71 record and Peterson's 8.23 K/9 give a marginal nod despite his 1.51 WHIP. Model's 8.09 total sits 1.6 runs above the 6.5 line, but two starters with 4.49/4.96 ERAs and WHIPs of 1.37/1.51 at Fenway (PF 1.028) do support the over side rather than the model being simply wrong. Low conviction on both.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.1
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
David PetersonCHC starter / away
Projected K4.5
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%
O 2.582%
O 3.566%
O 4.547%
O 5.531%
O 6.518%
O 7.510%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Brayan BelloBOS starter / home
Projected K4.2
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.578%
O 3.560%
O 4.541%
O 5.526%
O 6.514%
O 7.57%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame

Market consensus-117 / -102CHC / BOS moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-185)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -110 / U -109
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total