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KCR 1 / BOS 4
KCRKansas City Royals39%
BOSBoston Red Sox61%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
KCRAway starterNoah CameronConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline61%Model 20260907_auto
BOSHome starterPayton TolleConfirmed
KCR39%ML +160
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
BOS61%ML -195

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.9 pts

Model (61.1%) and market (62.0% implied) agree on Boston, so no comparison either way — defer to the consensus. Tolle's 3.15 ERA with 10.45 K/9 and 1.08 WHIP is the better arm, and Cameron at 3.93/1.20 is competent. With BOS at 3.5 runs per game and KCR carrying a .518 OPS, the model's 7.88 total looks high versus the 7.5 line; under is the side.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total7.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Noah CameronKCR starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -123 betonlineag / U +114 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Payton TolleBOS starter / home
Projected K6.2Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +116 fanduel / U -127 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.573%over
O 5.558%over
O 6.542%over
O 7.529%under
O 8.518%under
O 9.511%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+160 / -195KCR / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total