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SEA 8 / BOS 3
SEASeattle Mariners50%
BOSBoston Red Sox50%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SEAAway starterBryce MillerConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline50%Model 20260831_auto
BOSHome starterPatrick SandovalConfirmed
SEA50%ML +126
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
BOS50%ML -150

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.9 pts

Model has SEA at 50.5% vs market's 44.6% implied — modest gap. Sandoval's 1.71 WHIP over 45 IP is the standout number; he allows heavy traffic even with 9.6 K/9, and Seattle's .793 OPS is well above Boston's .736. Miller's 1.09 WHIP is the steadier profile. Small lean to SEA at plus money; Sandoval's baserunner rate plus Fenway's 1.028 park factor nudges the total over 8.5.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Bryce MillerSEA starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 betonlineag / U -135 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%under
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Patrick SandovalBOS starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 betonlineag / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%under
O 3.571%under
O 4.553%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+126 / -150SEA / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -106 / U -116
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total