MLB / mlb / live
SFG 4 / BOS 5SFGSan Francisco Giants37%
BOSBoston Red Sox63%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterMatt WilkinsonConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline63%Model 20260817_auto
BOSHome starterJake BennettConfirmed
SFG37%ML +175
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
BOS63%ML -207
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Matt WilkinsonSFG starter / away
Projected K1.5Actual 2 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -101 betonlineag / U -120 betmgm3 books at this line
Model over 2.519%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.543%over
O 2.519%under
O 3.56%under
O 4.52%under
O 5.50%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Jake BennettBOS starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 fanatics / U +100 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.526%over
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+175 / -207SFG / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books31 ML25 run line23 total