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CHW 11 / BOS 12
CHWChicago White Sox43%
BOSBoston Red Sox57%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterLuis CastilloConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline57%Model 20260803_auto
BOSHome starterRanger SuarezConfirmed
CHW43%ML +170
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
BOS57%ML -200

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.4 pts

Market (63.9%) is more bullish on Boston than the model (57.5%), and the fundamentals support it: BOS at 6.0 RPG with Suarez at 3.15 ERA, 9.45 K/9, 1.16 WHIP versus a CHW offense at 4.4 RPG. Castillo's stats are a fallback, so the 8.82 total projection is unreliable — no view on the 9.0 line.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.7
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Luis CastilloCHW starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.2Actual 5 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%over
O 2.561%over
O 3.539%over
O 4.522%over
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Ranger SuarezBOS starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -143 betrivers / U +125 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%under
O 4.565%under
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+170 / -200CHW / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total