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BAL 3 / BOS 6
BALBaltimore Orioles41%
BOSBoston Red Sox59%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BALAway starterDean KremerConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline59%Model 20260720_auto
BOSHome starterJake BennettConfirmed
BAL41%ML +138
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
BOS59%ML -164

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-timeN/A

Market data missing so no reference point for value. Model has BOS at 60.8% with Suarez (3.15 ERA, 9.56 K/9 in 91.3 IP) vs Bradish (3.61 ERA in 107.3 IP). Both pitchers solid but sample sizes decent. Fenway neutral park (PF 1.028). Without market context, can't assess if model comparison is real or mispriced.

market data missing

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.9
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kyle BradishBAL starter / away
Projected K4.8Did not start / void
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 bovada / U -124 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%
O 2.585%
O 3.569%
O 4.552%
O 5.535%
O 6.521%
O 7.512%
O 8.56%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Eduardo RiveraBOS starter / home
Projected K3.9Did not start / void
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%
O 2.573%
O 3.553%
O 4.535%
O 5.520%
O 6.510%
O 7.55%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+138 / -164BAL / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+122)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -109 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total