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TBR 1 / BOS 6
TBRTampa Bay Rays39%
BOSBoston Red Sox61%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterShane McClanahanConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline61%Model 20260713_auto
BOSHome starterSonny GrayConfirmed
TBR39%ML +105
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
BOS61%ML -125

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.2 pts

Model has BOS 61% vs market 53% — an 8-point gap triggers the disagreement flag but Gray/McClanahan ace matchup (2.54/2.83 ERA, 95/86 IP) argues for tight margins. Model total 8.39 vs market 8.0 is small but ace matchup leans under. Conflicting signals on side; defer to market on moneyline, slight under lean on total.

Large model-market gapace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.7
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Shane McClanahanTBR starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -153 draftkings / U +124 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Sonny GrayBOS starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 fanatics / U +116 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+105 / -125TBR / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total