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WSN 3 / BOS 6
WSNWashington Nationals56%
BOSBoston Red Sox44%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterMiles MikolasConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
BOSHome starterRanger SuarezConfirmed
WSN56%ML +145
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability39%Selected moneyline pick
BOS44%ML -171

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap16.5 pts

Market strongly favors BOS at 60.8% while model has WSN at 55.8%. Suarez (2.83 ERA, 9.15 K/9 over 82.7 IP) is the clear pitching comparison over Mikolas (5.24 ERA). Model total of 7.0 is 1.5 runs under market 8.5, likely underweighting BOS offensive weakness (0.736 OPS, 28-54 record). Side with market on BOS but lean under on total given Suarez quality.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.6
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Miles MikolasWSN starter / away
Projected K3.0Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -112 draftkings / U +100 betonlineag2 books at this line
Model over 2.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%over
O 2.557%over
O 3.535%under
O 4.518%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Ranger SuarezBOS starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -102 fanduel / U -105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%over
O 6.534%over
O 7.521%over
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+145 / -171WSN / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+124)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -106 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total