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WSN 8 / BOS 1
WSNWashington Nationals56%
BOSBoston Red Sox44%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterCade CavalliConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
BOSHome starterConnelly EarlyConfirmed
WSN56%ML +115
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
BOS44%ML -135

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap11.0 pts

Model picks WSN at 55.7%, market has them at ~45.5%—large disagreement flags structural risk. Model's 7.04 total vs market 9.0 is a 2-run miss; model sees pitcher dominance (Early 3.59 ERA, Cavalli 4.0 ERA, both 9+ K/9) that market doesn't. Lean WSN on value, strong under on total given SP quality and model-market gap.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.8
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cade CavalliWSN starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 13 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betonlineag / U +105 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.518%over
O 7.59%over
O 8.55%over
O 9.52%over
O 10.51%over
O 11.50%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 13 strikeouts.

Connelly EarlyBOS starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -114 fanduel / U +103 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+115 / -135WSN / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total