MLB / mlb / live
NYY 1 / BOS 6NYYNew York Yankees53%
BOSBoston Red Sox47%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterWill WarrenConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline53%Model 20260622_auto
BOSHome starterPayton TolleConfirmed
NYY53%ML +102
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
BOS47%ML -122
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.5
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Will WarrenNYY starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 0 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -143 betonlineag / U +120 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%under
O 2.583%under
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Payton TolleBOS starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 betrivers / U +104 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+102 / -122NYY / BOS moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-178)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total