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NYY 4 / BOS 5
NYYNew York Yankees51%
BOSBoston Red Sox49%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterCarlos RodónConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline51%Model 20260622_auto
BOSHome starterSonny GrayConfirmed
NYY51%ML -108
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
BOS49%ML -112

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.0 pts

Model sees coin flip (50.6% NYY), market agrees (51.6% BOS). Gray's 2.95 ERA in 76 IP is legitimate, Rodón's peripherals (10 K/9) are strong. Model total of 6.78 is 1.2 runs under market's 8.0 — likely driven by pitcher quality the market is fading. BOS offense is catastrophically bad (0.3 RPG) but 81 games means this is real data. Lean under on total given starter edges, pass on side.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.4
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Carlos RodónNYY starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -115 fanatics / U +100 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.538%over
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Sonny GrayBOS starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -130 fanduel / U +110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.540%over
O 6.526%over
O 7.515%over
O 8.58%over
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-108 / -112NYY / BOS moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total