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NYY 1 / BOS 4
NYYNew York Yankees58%
BOSBoston Red Sox42%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterGerrit ColeConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
BOSHome starterJake BennettConfirmed
NYY58%ML -118
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
BOS42%ML 0

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanOver
Model-market gap5.9 pts

Model has NYY 58.3%, market 52.3% — modest comparison. Cole (3.62 ERA, 8.07 K/9) is solid but Bennett (3.71 ERA in 26.7 IP) has been competent. BOS offense is historically bad at 0.3 RPG but model predicts 9.44 runs vs market 8.0. The 1.44-run gap suggests model overweights recent BOS offensive uptick. Lean NYY side, over on total given Fenway's slight hitter tilt.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.4
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Gerrit ColeNYY starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -154 betonlineag / U +130 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Jake BennettBOS starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 betrivers / U -144 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%under
O 4.546%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-118 / 0NYY / BOS moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total