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TOR 3 / BOS 0
TORToronto Blue Jays45%
BOSBoston Red Sox55%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterBraydon FisherConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline55%Model 20260616_auto
BOSHome starterJake BennettConfirmed
TOR45%ML +100
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
BOS55%ML -120

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.5 pts

Model and market converge at BOS ~55%, but context is thin: Bennett has only 15.3 IP (5.28 ERA, 4.7 K/9), Scherzer's 10.23 ERA over 22 IP suggests injury or age-related decline. Both pitchers are volatile small samples. Market total 9.5 vs model 9.19 is tight; lean under given pitcher uncertainty and Fenway's modest park factor.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Braydon FisherTOR starter / away
Projected K2.3Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.566%under
O 2.540%under
O 3.520%under
O 4.59%under
O 5.53%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Jake BennettBOS starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 5 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%over
O 3.548%over
O 4.530%over
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+100 / -120TOR / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total