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TEX 6 / BOS 4
TEXTexas Rangers40%
BOSBoston Red Sox60%

at Fenway Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TEXAway starterNathan EovaldiConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterConnelly EarlyConfirmed
TEX40%ML -102
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
BOS60%ML -117

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap8.6 pts

Model favors BOS at 60.2% vs market's 51.4%—an 8.8pp gap triggers market_disagreement_large. BOS is 28-40 despite .736 OPS; TEX 34-36 with worse .698 OPS. Early's 3.30 ERA in 71 IP is solid, Eovaldi's 4.26 in 80.1 IP mediocre. Model total 8.88 vs market 9.0 suggests lean under. Insufficient comparison to override market on side.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.9
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Nathan EovaldiTEX starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -145 draftkings / U +120 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.529%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Connelly EarlyBOS starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +112 draftkings / U -129 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%under
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-102 / -117TEX / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+128)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -111
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total