MLB / mlb / live
BAL 8 / BOS 2BALBaltimore Orioles42%
BOSBoston Red Sox58%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterTrevor Rogers
Model pickBOS moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterBrayan Bello
BAL42%ML +100
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
BOS58%ML -120
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.4 pts
Model likes BOS at 57.5%, market at 52.1% — modest comparison. Rogers' 0.00 ERA in 7.0 IP is extreme small-sample noise, not predictive. Bello lacks resolved season stats which adds uncertainty. Model total of 9.14 runs sits well under market 10.5; lean under given Fenway's modest park factor and skepticism on offensive projections.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+100 / -120BAL / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -107 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total