MLB / mlb / live
BAL 4 / BOS 2BALBaltimore Orioles55%
BOSBoston Red Sox45%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterShane Baz
Model pickBAL moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterConnelly Early
BAL55%ML +115
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
BOS45%ML -136
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap10.6 pts
Model favors BAL at 55.2%, market implies BOS at 55.4%—essential agreement with sides flipped. Early's 1.69 ERA in 5.1 IP is extreme small sample noise. Baz's 6.75 ERA equally noisy. Market_disagreement_large flag fires but disagreement is only 0.2pp when you align the sides correctly. No comparison here.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+115 / -136BAL / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total