MLB / mlb / live
MIN 6 / BOS 5MINMinnesota Twins52%
BOSBoston Red Sox48%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterBailey Ober
Model pickMIN moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterSonny Gray
MIN52%ML +145
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability39%Selected moneyline pick
BOS48%ML -175
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap13.1 pts
Model has MIN at 52% but market strongly favors BOS at 58.5% implied. Both pitchers show identical 6.75 ERA in tiny 4.0 IP samples—noise, not signal. Model's 9.24 total is 1.74 runs above market's 7.5, flagging structural overestimation. Defer to market on side; lean under on inflated total.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.2
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+145 / -175MIN / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -114 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line23 total