MLB / mlb / live
MIN 4 / BOS 2MINMinnesota Twins59%
BOSBoston Red Sox41%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterTaj Bradley
Model pickMIN moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterJovani Morán
MIN59%ML +106
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
BOS41%ML -125
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.6 pts
Morán has 2.0 IP in 2 starts this season—effectively an opener or bullpen day. Bradley's 18.69 K/9 in 4.1 IP is a 2-start mirage. Model weighs pitch-level features heavily but neither pitcher has meaningful sample. Market disagrees with model by 6.6 pts; defer to market given structural uncertainty.
Large model-market gapace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin1.7
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+106 / -125MIN / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -117 / U -104
32 books31 ML23 run line23 total