MLB / mlb / live
MIN 8 / BOS 6MINMinnesota Twins46%
BOSBoston Red Sox54%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterConnor Prielipp
Model pickBOS moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterPayton Tolle
MIN46%ML +129
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
BOS54%ML -152
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.1 pts
Model likes BOS at 53.6% but market has them at 58.6% — a 5pp gap favoring MIN. BOS offense is league-worst at 2.6 RPG despite Fenway boost. MIN at 4.1 RPG is materially better. Model total of 9.02 vs market 7.5 is a 1.52-run miss; pitcher stats are null so can't validate structural reasoning. Lean MIN and over.
total far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+129 / -152MIN / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -118 / U -102
32 books31 ML23 run line23 total