MLB / mlb / live
PHI 3 / BOS 1PHIPhiladelphia Phillies55%
BOSBoston Red Sox45%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterJesús Luzardo
Model pickPHI moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterRanger Suarez
PHI55%ML -110
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
BOS45%ML -108
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap5.0 pts
Model predicts 9.13 runs vs market 7.0—a 2.1-run gap flags structural error. PHI's 4.9 RPG faces BOS 3.4 RPG offense; market sees pitcher comparison. Suarez lacks resolved ERA/IP stats despite 10 starts (data issue). Luzardo's 9.0 ERA in 6 IP is tiny sample noise. Market coin-flip moneyline more credible than model's PHI lean given BOS home context.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-110 / -108PHI / BOS moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-183)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total