MLB / mlb / live
DET 4 / BOS 1DETDetroit Tigers59%
BOSBoston Red Sox41%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterTarik Skubal
Model pickDET moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterBrayan Bello
DET59%ML -152
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
BOS41%ML +130
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.5 pts
Model sees DET 58.6%, market implies 57.6% — tight agreement favoring Tigers. Skubal's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is too small to trust but he's an ace. Model's 9.41 total vs market 7.0 is a 2.4-run gap; model likely overweighting BOS offense (.736 OPS) and missing Skubal's dominance. Lean under with Tigers.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin1.5
Projected total9.4
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-152 / +130DET / BOS moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-138)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -104 / U -117
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total