MLB / mlb / live
DET 6 / BOS 2DETDetroit Tigers56%
BOSBoston Red Sox44%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterFramber Valdez
Model pickDET moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterGarrett Crochet
DET56%ML +120
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability44%Selected moneyline pick
BOS44%ML -143
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap12.1 pts
Model projects 9.14 runs vs market 7.0, a 2+ run gap flagging structural miss. Ace matchup (Crochet 0.00 ERA, Valdez 1.50 ERA in 6 IP each) supports under. Small samples make starter ERAs unreliable but K rates (12.0, 7.5) suggest quality. Model leans DET 55.7% vs market 43.8% for BOS—defer to Pinnacle given thin pitcher data.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+120 / -143DET / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -110 / U -110
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total