MLB / mlb / live
TOR 2 / BAL 4TORToronto Blue Jays47%
BALBaltimore Orioles53%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterMax ScherzerConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline53%Model 20260921_auto
BALHome starterChris BassittConfirmed
TOR47%ML +106
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
BAL53%ML -125
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Max ScherzerTOR starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -113 fanduel / U -105 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%over
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Chris BassittBAL starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -164 fanduel / U +128 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%under
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+106 / -125TOR / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+172)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -111 / U -108
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total