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MIL 3 / BAL 0
MILMilwaukee Brewers54%
BALBaltimore Orioles46%

at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterJacob MisiorowskiConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline54%Model 20260914_auto
BALHome starterBrandon YoungConfirmed
MIL54%ML -212
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
BAL46%ML +176

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.4 pts

Model's 53.9% on MIL is far below the market's ~65%, and the market looks right here: Milwaukee is 97-58 with a .972 OPS and 6.9 RPG, and Misiorowski (1.89 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 13.15 K/9) is a clear comparison over Young (3.65 ERA, 1.37 WHIP). Model total of 9.02 vs a 7.5 line ignores that arm plus Camden's 0.94 park factor; under is the side.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / away
Projected K7.6Actual 4 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O +120 betmgm / U -141 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 8.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.593%over
O 4.586%under
O 5.575%under
O 6.562%under
O 7.548%under
O 8.535%under
O 9.524%under
O 10.516%under
O 11.510%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Brandon YoungBAL starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 draftkings / U -148 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.512%over
O 8.56%over
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-212 / +176MIL / BAL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -109 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total