MLB / mlb / live
TBR 3 / BAL 1TBRTampa Bay Rays43%
BALBaltimore Orioles57%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterNick MartinezConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline57%Model 20260817_auto
BALHome starterShane BazConfirmed
TBR43%ML -102
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
BAL57%ML -114
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Nick MartinezTBR starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -132 fanduel / U +112 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Shane BazBAL starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +124 betonlineag / U -141 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-102 / -114TBR / BAL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -114 / U -117
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total