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TBR 3 / BAL 5
TBRTampa Bay Rays39%
BALBaltimore Orioles61%

at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterFreddy PeraltaConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline61%Model 20260817_auto
BALHome starterTrevor RogersConfirmed
TBR39%ML +100
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
BAL61%ML -118

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.8 pts

Model at 61.3% vs market 53.5% on BAL, and the flag is fair: TBR is 76-51 with .802 OPS vs BAL's .662 and 61-67. Peralta's 5.27 ERA and 1.48 WHIP is the reason BAL is favored, but Rogers at 4.15 isn't a big comparison. Model total of 9.16 ignores the 0.94 park factor; lean under 8.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Freddy PeraltaTBR starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 betmgm / U -146 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Trevor RogersBAL starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -105 betmgm / U -110 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.525%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+100 / -118TBR / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -114 / U -107
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total