MLB / mlb / live
KCR 2 / BAL 8KCRKansas City Royals49%
BALBaltimore Orioles51%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterSeth LugoConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline51%Model 20260706_auto
BALHome starterShane BazConfirmed
KCR49%ML +128
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
BAL51%ML -150
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Seth LugoKCR starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -106 betonlineag / U -105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.523%over
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Shane BazBAL starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +126 fanduel / U -158 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.525%over
O 7.514%over
O 8.58%over
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+128 / -150KCR / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+133)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -113 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total