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KCR 3 / BAL 5
KCRKansas City Royals50%
BALBaltimore Orioles50%

at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
KCRAway starterLuinder AvilaConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline50%Model 20260706_auto
BALHome starterBrandon YoungConfirmed
KCR50%ML +131
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
BAL50%ML -156

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap8.4 pts

Market has BAL at 58.5% vs model's 50.0% — an 8.5 point gap. Young's 3.38 ERA over 77.1 IP is real; Avila's 5.05 ERA and 1.59 WHIP suggests vulnerability. Camden Yards PF 0.94 suppresses scoring. Model's 9.15 total sits 1.35 runs under market's 10.5, likely underweighting KC's 5.3 RPG. Lean BAL on side strength but pass confidence to market; lean under given park and Young's form.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.2
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Luinder AvilaKCR starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 bovada / U -159 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%under
O 4.540%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Brandon YoungBAL starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 betonlineag / U -115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.535%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+131 / -156KCR / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -115 / U -109
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total