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CHW 9 / BAL 3
CHWChicago White Sox56%
BALBaltimore Orioles44%

at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterErick FeddeConfirmed
Model pickCHW moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
BALHome starterTrey GibsonConfirmed
CHW56%ML +123
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
BAL44%ML -146

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap12.7 pts

Model has CHW 55.8%, market implies BAL 55.6% — near-consensus on a coin flip. The 3.15-run gap between model total (7.35) and market (10.5) is massive. Gibson's 5.64 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 30 IP plus extreme park (0.94) argue the market overreacted. Lean CHW and under but with low conviction given thin pitcher samples.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.6
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Erick FeddeCHW starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +123 betrivers / U -136 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%under
O 4.527%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Trey GibsonBAL starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +124 fanduel / U -135 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.535%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+123 / -146CHW / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total