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CHC 5 / BAL 2
CHCChicago Cubs47%
BALBaltimore Orioles53%

at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHCAway starterMatthew BoydConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline53%Model 20260706_auto
BALHome starterShane BazConfirmed
CHC47%ML -112
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
BAL53%ML -105

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap3.5 pts

Model sees BAL 52.7% vs market 48.6%, a minor comparison for the home side. But CHC has superior record (50-40 vs 42-49) and offense (6.0 RPG, .694 OPS vs 4.0 RPG, .662 OPS). Boyd's 9.89 K/9 in limited IP suggests strikeout upside. Camden Yards park factor 0.94 plus model total 8.53 vs market 9.0 argues under. offense_defense_mismatch flag confirms model backing weaker team.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.8
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Matthew BoydCHC starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -162 fanduel / U +126 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Shane BazBAL starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 betmgm / U -140 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%under
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-112 / -105CHC / BAL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -118 / U -103
33 books31 ML24 run line22 total