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WSN 6 / BAL 4
WSNWashington Nationals48%
BALBaltimore Orioles52%

at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterZack LittellConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline52%Model 20260622_auto
BALHome starterKyle BradishConfirmed
WSN48%ML +170
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability64%Selected moneyline pick
BAL52%ML -202

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap12.6 pts

Model has BAL 51.7%, market 63.1% — an 11.4pp gap flags structural miss. Model total 7.44 vs market 9.0 is massive (1.56 runs). Bradish 3.64 ERA in 89 IP is legitimate; Littell 5.40 ERA vulnerable. Camden Yards suppresses runs (PF 0.94). Market likely right on side, model plausibly right on total given pitcher quality gap and park.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.8
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Zack LittellWSN starter / away
Projected K3.2Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -102 draftkings / U -115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.562%over
O 3.540%under
O 4.523%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Kyle BradishBAL starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -132 fanduel / U +113 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%under
O 3.580%under
O 4.565%under
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+170 / -202WSN / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -103 / U -118
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total